The useful question is what changes for users, developers or buyers, and whether the announcement stays industry context or becomes something people can actually use.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 29 July 2026 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with six members preferring no change and three advocating a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4%. The decision reflects ongoing volatility in crude and refined energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which remain higher than pre-conflict levels. The MPC noted that while CPI inflation has fallen to 2.6%, it is expected to rise later in 2026 due to energy price effects, with risks tilted to the upside for inflation persistence.

Energy prices, particularly Brent crude at $84 per barrel and UK natural gas at 136 pence per therm as of 28 July, remain a dominant source of uncertainty. The MPC acknowledged that monetary policy cannot directly influence energy prices but aims to ensure economic adjustment supports the 2% inflation target. The Committee highlighted that the risk of second-round effects in wages and prices increases the longer energy prices stay elevated, though current data shows little evidence of such effects so far.

Members agreed that risks to energy prices remain skewed to the upside, with potential for further volatility if the Middle East conflict escalates. While strategic oil reserve releases and supply substitutions have tempered some price pressures, gas and refined product prices have seen less relief due to supply constraints. The MPC stressed that sustained disinflation prior to the conflict, alongside a soft labour market and slowing wage growth, has helped mitigate inflationary pressures, but cautioned that the outlook remains highly uncertain.

The MPC reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining CPI inflation at 2% over the medium term, with Bank Rate held at 3.75% to balance risks between inflation persistence and economic activity. Members noted that financial conditions have tightened since the conflict began, increasing financing costs for households and businesses. The Committee will continue monitoring a wide range of indicators to assess inflation risks, including second-round effects and global factors such as AI-related price pressures and El Niño’s impact on food prices.