Profit-taking Becoming Exhausted as BTC Continues to Hit Resistance
Bitcoin rose to $64,775 this week as spot ETF inflows offset profit-taking exhaustion, while equities declined amid rising Treasury yields and oil prices.
Bitcoin climbed 2.6% on August 17 and closed at $64,775, its highest level in 10 days, after three consecutive sessions of losses in the S&P 500. The cryptocurrency has remained confined to a narrow range of $60,795 to $65,700 since early June, with no weekly closes outside this band. Volatility and trading volume have both declined significantly during this period.
The recent price recovery was driven by spot ETF inflows totaling $486.8 million over two sessions, alongside evidence that profit-taking capacity has been largely exhausted. Long-term holders are realizing minimal losses at the deepest ratios since June, while short-term holders are transacting near break-even. The aggregate profit ratio of moved coins has remained below par for 10 consecutive sessions, indicating limited selling pressure at higher prices.
For the first time since March, Bitcoin advanced while equities retreated, with the cryptocurrency decoupling from broader market trends. The recovery began from a weekly low of $62,724 and was supported by a volume spike, a behavior typically seen at range lows rather than highs. Despite seven daily highs above $65,000 since August 5, the market has yet to close a single day above this level since July 26.
The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has remained below 1 for 10 consecutive sessions, signaling that the average moved coin was sold at a loss. Long-term holders are selling at an average loss of 19-22%, while short-term holders have held near break-even for 36 days. The ETF complex returned as a net buyer, absorbing roughly 7,600 BTC over two days, but the move lacked leveraged positioning or elevated implied volatility, suggesting limited conviction behind the rally.