ECB wage tracker at 2.7% in Q1 2027, indicating stable negotiated wage pressures

The European Central Bank (ECB) reported that its wage tracker, which measures negotiated wage pressures through collective bargaining agreements, stood at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027. This figure reflects smoothed one-off payments and covers 28.4% of employees in participating euro area countries. The tracker’s forward-looking horizon has been extended to March 2027, with further extensions planned as new agreements are finalized. Compared with the June 2026 release, the assessment for 2026 remains broadly unchanged, indicating no significant shift in wage pressure dynamics.

The ECB also highlighted that the headline wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments, is better suited for analyzing quarterly or monthly trends. For 2026, the tracker averaged 1.8% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2, and 2.6% in Q3 and Q4, reflecting the diminishing impact of large one-off payments made in 2024. The tracker excluding one-off payments remained stable at around 2.6% throughout 2026, while the unsmoothed tracker averaged 2.9% in Q1, 2.6% in Q2, and 2.5% in Q3 and Q4.

Employee coverage for the wage tracker decreased from 47.0% in Q1 2026 to 28.4% in Q1 2027, reflecting the evolving scope of active agreements. The ECB emphasized that the forward-looking component of the tracker should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only reflects currently available data. Revisions to the tracker are possible, and deviations from negotiated wage growth indicators may occur over time.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine participating euro area countries via its Data Portal. For a broader assessment of wage developments, the ECB directs readers to the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, which project a 3.2% yearly growth rate in compensation per employee for the euro area in 2026.