Fed decision headlines two weeks of inflation and jobs data
The Federal Reserve’s July 29 rate decision and subsequent economic data releases—including jobs, inflation, and corporate earnings—create a high-impact two-week period for crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum on Kraken Pro.
The useful question is what changes for users, developers or buyers, and whether the announcement stays industry context or becomes something people can actually use.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on July 29, following its two-day meeting. No rate change is expected, but the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference will signal the Fed’s stance on future policy. Markets will scrutinize wording for hints on potential easing, which could influence rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum on Kraken Pro. The absence of a dot plot or economic projections limits immediate clarity, leaving traders to interpret nuanced signals.
Less than a day later, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release June Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 30, including the PCE price index and the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP. If the Fed’s tone conflicts with these figures, markets may struggle to reconcile conflicting signals quickly. Bitcoin and Ethereum futures and margin markets on Kraken Pro are particularly exposed to these releases, as traders adjust positions based on evolving expectations for rate cuts.
Coinbase will publish its second-quarter results after the US market close on July 30, followed by a live Q&A session on X at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET). The company reported a $394 million net loss in Q1 and cut 700 jobs, raising concerns about its financial health. MicroStrategy, which holds 843,775 BTC acquired for roughly $63.69 billion, will report the same afternoon with a 5:00 p.m. ET webinar. Its Q1 unrealized loss on digital assets totaled $14.46 billion, underscoring volatility in crypto-linked equities that could spill into broader crypto sentiment.
The July Employment Situation report and Consumer Price Index, released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 1 and August 12 respectively, will further shape Fed policy expectations. Stronger-than-expected payrolls or inflation could delay rate cuts, while softer data may accelerate easing. Bitcoin and Ethereum markets on Kraken Pro are likely to reflect these shifts. Traders should prepare for potential volatility, especially around the July 31 options expiry on Deribit, which can influence short-term price action in BTC and ETH derivatives.