Games like Call of Duty and EA Sports FC most at risk of losing players during GTA 6 launch, according to new data

A new risk assessment by gaming consultancy Open World identifies competitive shooters and sports games as the genres most vulnerable to player attrition during the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 next month. The study highlights that 69% of PC and console gamers intend to play GTA 6, signaling significant potential disruption to other titles. Developers of affected games are advised to adjust their strategies to minimize losses during this period.

In the United States alone, Sensor Tower reports 6.08 million digital pre-orders for GTA 6 as of October 13, generating $594 million in revenue. This level of pre-launch engagement underscores the expected surge in player focus toward GTA 6, raising concerns for competing franchises. Open World’s analysis focuses on historical player overlap with GTA titles and launch intent among current players of other games.

Titles such as Call of Duty, Battlefield, Apex Legends, Fortnite, EA Sports FC, and NBA 2K are identified as most at risk of losing players to GTA 6 at launch. Counter-Strike 2 is noted as an exception due to its lack of console availability, despite a higher proportion of players having prior GTA experience. The assessment emphasizes that even loyal players of major franchises are not insulated from the pull of GTA 6.

Open World recommends that developers avoid major content updates or paid marketing during GTA 6’s launch window to mitigate losses. The consultancy advises maintaining baseline activity to retain existing players while preparing for a stronger re-engagement push once attention normalizes. Tracking player behavior and adjusting strategies accordingly is highlighted as critical for minimizing long-term impact.