Can ‘digital twins’ help California manage its growing flood risk?
UC Berkeley researchers are developing a digital twin of California’s Lower Pajaro River Valley to improve flood risk understanding and management amid rising climate threats and social equity concerns.
Approximately 1.4 million Californians face annual flood risks, a threat exacerbated by climate change, yet traditional risk maps often fail to convey the urgency or impact to residents and policymakers. Researchers at UC Berkeley are addressing this gap by creating a hydrodynamic digital twin of the Lower Pajaro River Valley, a region with a history of severe flooding, including a $300 million disaster in March 2023. The virtual model aims to visualize flood scenarios in three dimensions, allowing communities to see potential outcomes of management decisions such as levee improvements or setback levees, which could restore floodplains but also displace vulnerable populations.
The project, led by UC Berkeley’s Anna Serra-Llobet and Adda Athanasopoulos-Zekkos, is a collaboration with the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency and international partners, including VRVis GmbH, which developed the software 'scenarify' used to build the digital twin. The model will integrate ecological, climate, and social equity factors, offering a more comprehensive view of flood risks than static maps. For example, it could demonstrate how setback levees might reduce flood damage while creating wetlands or recreational spaces, or how levee relocation could affect nearby communities.
Digital twins have been used in Europe for flood simulation, but this marks the first U.S. application for flood risk management. The technology pairs with real-time monitoring systems to assess aging infrastructure under increasing climate stressors, such as more frequent atmospheric rivers. UC Berkeley’s Kenichi Soga emphasized the tool’s potential to prolong infrastructure lifespan by providing data on actual behavior during destructive events, which are expected to intensify with climate change.
The Pajaro River case study was chosen for its complex social and geographical challenges, including a history of delayed flood protection projects due to low property values. The new levee system, now under construction after decades of delays, includes setback levees to restore floodplains and wetlands. Researchers aim to refine the digital twin with input from community members and partners, hoping to extend the approach to other flood-prone regions in California as a more dynamic alternative to traditional risk assessment.