New Report Finds Bay Area Residents Who Leave Are More Likely to Become Homeowners
A UC Berkeley-affiliated report finds Bay Area residents who relocate often achieve homeownership but face trade-offs such as lower incomes, weaker schools, and greater climate risks.
The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley released a study showing that Bay Area residents who leave the region frequently move to areas with lower housing costs and higher homeownership rates. Researchers tracked households using anonymized credit bureau data, finding that those who relocated to other states were 33% more likely to own a home within five years. However, these gains often came with significant downsides, including lower-performing schools and increased climate vulnerability.
The report highlights stark financial contrasts between origin and destination neighborhoods. For example, San Francisco residents who moved out of state between 2015 and 2019 relocated to areas where the median home value was $916,000 lower than their previous communities. Movers also tended to have weaker financial profiles, with average credit scores 23 points lower and nearly double the student debt compared to their former neighbors.
Authors Evan White and Dr. Brett Fischer emphasized the trade-offs involved in leaving the Bay Area. White noted that while the region offers economic opportunities, its high costs are pushing residents to seek affordability elsewhere, often at the expense of income stability and educational quality. Fischer added that housing price pressures, potentially intensified by the AI industry’s growth, may further exacerbate these trends.
The report, titled 'Priced Out of the Bay,' builds on earlier CPL research examining statewide migration patterns. It underscores the broader question of who can afford to live in the Bay Area amid rising costs, suggesting that affordability challenges are reshaping the region’s demographic and economic landscape.