ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

The European Central Bank reported that median inflation expectations over the past year fell to 3.5% in July from 3.6% in June, while expectations for the next 12 months and three years ahead also decreased to 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. Five-year expectations remained stable at 2.4%. Uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations stayed elevated compared to pre-war levels, and lower-income households continued to report higher inflation perceptions than higher-income groups.

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next year declined to 1.0% from 1.1% in June, while perceived spending growth over the past year held steady at 5.1%. Expected spending growth for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 3.6%, with lower-income households anticipating slightly higher spending increases than higher-income groups. Economic growth expectations for the next year improved marginally to -1.2% from -1.4%, while unemployment rate expectations 12 months ahead stayed flat at 11.2%.

Labour market sentiment showed signs of weakening, as unemployed respondents’ job-finding probability over the next three months dropped to 30.8% in July from 32.1% in April, while employed respondents’ perceived risk of job loss rose to 9.8% from 8.8%. Home price growth expectations for the next year remained unchanged at 3.4%, with lower-income households expecting higher increases (4.0%) than higher-income households (3.1%).

Mortgage interest rate expectations for 12 months ahead fell slightly to 4.9% from 5.0%, with lower-income households anticipating higher rates (5.7%) than higher-income households (4.4%). Credit access tightened slightly over the past year, though expectations for future credit conditions eased. The share of consumers applying for credit in the past three months rose to 14.3% from 13.4% in April.