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A new study led by UC Berkeley researchers projects that climate change could significantly increase wildfire activity in four major California national parks beyond natural levels. The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, highlights that rising temperatures—already exceeding the global average since 1895—are altering fire regimes in Yosemite, Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Lassen Volcanic National Parks. Current fire management strategies rely on pre-1849 conditions as a benchmark, but the study finds this approach overlooks areas at heightened risk under future climate scenarios.

The researchers, including lead author Patrick Gonzalez, analyzed how climate change could shift vegetation biomes upward by 230 to 480 meters in the Sierra Nevada, exposing red fir forests and alpine grasslands to increased fire risks. Under the highest emissions scenario, wildfire frequency could double or triple by 2100, while reduced emissions could limit the increase to slight or no change. The findings underscore the need for park managers to adopt forward-looking fire management strategies that account for climate-driven shifts in ecosystems.

Gonzalez, a former Principal Climate Change Scientist for the U.S. National Park Service and lead IPCC author, emphasized that reducing carbon pollution remains the most effective long-term solution to mitigate wildfire risks. The study provides park managers with data to proactively target natural fire regimes and reduce understory fuels in high-risk areas. This approach aims to align fire management practices with the realities of a changing climate rather than historical benchmarks.

The research calls for a shift in fire management priorities, moving beyond traditional reference conditions to incorporate climate change projections. By doing so, park managers can better prepare for the ecological and operational challenges posed by increased wildfire activity, ensuring the preservation of these national parks for future generations.