GAD modelling supports pandemic preparedness work
Actuarial modelling by GAD and UKHSA quantifies pandemic response risks, including vaccine development uncertainty, to guide policy decisions and economic planning.
The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) collaborated with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) to assess how uncertainty in vaccine development could shape the economic impact of pandemic preparedness strategies. Using actuarial modelling techniques, the project evaluated risks linked to vaccine timelines and candidate availability, integrating scientific, economic, and actuarial perspectives. The analysis demonstrated how quantifying uncertainty can inform decision-making by clarifying potential outcomes and testing underlying assumptions. Findings highlighted the need for diversification in vaccine development to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a limited number of candidates.
The proof-of-concept project aimed to bridge gaps between scientific evidence and practical policy responses by applying actuarial methods to pandemic scenarios. By simulating different development timelines and candidate success rates, the modelling provided a framework for assessing economic consequences under varying conditions. This approach allowed UKHSA to explore how delays or failures in vaccine development could affect broader pandemic response strategies. The work underscored the value of interdisciplinary collaboration in preparing for future health emergencies.
Results from the modelling showed that the number of vaccine candidates and their development speed directly influence economic outcomes during pandemics. The analysis also stressed the risks of concentrating resources on too few candidates, which could leave systems vulnerable to delays or failures. By quantifying these risks, the project provided UKHSA with actionable insights to refine preparedness plans and allocate resources more effectively. The findings were presented in a clear format to support evidence-based decision-making.
UKHSA acknowledged GAD’s contribution, noting the close collaboration and timely delivery of a valuable analysis despite tight deadlines. The project’s output was described as a useful tool for sharpening the focus of pandemic preparedness work, with clear communication throughout the process. The case study offers further details on the modelling methodology and its implications for future pandemic response strategies.