Homicides fall as organised crime grows more profitable – and networked

A UN report released on Wednesday reveals that while homicide rates have fallen globally from 5.9 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 5.2 in 2023, organized crime is expanding into trafficking, migrant smuggling, and natural resource exploitation. The study, presented at the 15th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Abu Dhabi, projects a 25% decrease in homicides by 2030 under current trends. However, Latin America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa still account for two-thirds of global homicide victims, largely driven by organized crime and gangs.

The report highlights how criminal networks are increasingly embedded in legitimate economies, diversifying from drug trafficking into agriculture, mining, and wildlife in Latin America. Europol estimates that nearly one-fifth of criminal networks in Europe operate across multiple markets, while in Southeast Asia, groups in special economic zones run cyberfraud schemes and human trafficking operations, generating illicit proceeds estimated at $12.5 billion annually in Cambodia alone.

Technology has lowered barriers to entry for criminals, enabling the rise of 'cybercrime-as-a-service' models and generative AI tools that reduce the need for organizational sophistication. A 2025 survey of 42 countries found that 57% of adults had experienced a scam, with 23% losing money in the past year. Justice systems are struggling to adapt, with many adopting militarized policing and punitive prison approaches that often conflict with evidence-based crime reduction strategies.

The report notes successes such as São Paulo’s sustained decline in homicides since the early 2000s, attributed to data-driven policing, firearms restrictions, and municipal prevention measures. However, it warns that states are adopting surveillance and AI technologies faster than the regulatory frameworks needed to govern them, raising concerns about security-driven justice systems.