Strengthening El Niño to push 49 million more people into acute hunger
The UN World Food Programme warns that a strengthening El Niño could push 49 million more people into acute hunger by 2027, intensifying food insecurity in vulnerable regions.
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The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that nearly 50 million more people in highly vulnerable communities could face acute hunger due to the strengthening El Niño weather phenomenon. The agency and partners are increasing efforts in eight countries to assist communities already struggling with poverty, conflict, and repeated climate extremes. Priorities include preparing for floods, droughts, and storms before they occur to mitigate impacts. WFP’s Acting Executive Director, Carl Skau, emphasized the urgency, stating that early support for families is critical to saving lives and protecting livelihoods.
WFP noted that the 2015-2016 El Niño affected the food security of 60 to 100 million people. Early projections indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year. The agency expects the total number of acutely food-insecure people to rise from 225 million to 274 million, an increase of approximately 22%. Parts of Central America and southern Africa are expected to face the most severe impacts, though significant effects are also forecast in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia.
WFP highlighted the varied impacts of El Niño, with some regions already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding, and unusually high temperatures. Others are expected to face worsening conditions during upcoming planting seasons and harvests. WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have appealed for increased support to help at-risk communities prepare for El Niño before emergencies escalate. El Niño is projected to peak between September and December 2026, with effects lasting into 2027 due to impacts on future harvests.
WFP, in collaboration with FAO, OCHA, and other partners, has active prevention plans in over 50 countries. Since May, the agency has triggered anticipatory action plans in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala, and El Salvador, providing over $14 million in lifesaving responses to support half a million people. These efforts include scaling pre-arranged financing mechanisms such as disaster risk insurance, credit, and digital payments to reduce costs and improve preparedness. Evidence from prior El Niño events shows that $1 invested in anticipatory programs can save between $3 and $7 in avoided losses and response costs.