Predicting the economic impact of the High-Luminosity LHC
CERN’s High-Luminosity LHC upgrade undergoes a cost-benefit analysis, projecting nearly double its investment return through training, industrial innovation, and scientific spillovers, despite unquantifiable discovery potential.
The High-Luminosity upgrade of CERN’s Large Hadron Collider (HiLumi LHC) presents a challenge in economic forecasting, as breakthroughs from fundamental research cannot be easily quantified. The project underwent a conservative cost-benefit analysis that excludes potential discoveries, focusing only on measurable benefits. Even under these strict parameters, the returns are projected to nearly double the investment costs, with additional gains from new knowledge. The study compares scenarios with and without the HiLumi LHC, crediting only the differences to the upgrade.
To account for uncertainty, the analysis used 15 critical variables sampled from plausible ranges, running 50,000 simulations. In 94% of these simulations, the outcome was a net positive, demonstrating robust economic viability. The largest benefit, 40.3%, stems from training and education, as thousands of students and researchers contribute to the project and later apply their skills in the wider economy. The upgrade is expected to sustain this knowledge flow into the 2030s, with career impacts lasting decades.
Industrial suppliers account for 37.7% of the benefits, gaining new techniques and market opportunities by building equipment for the collider. Free software developed for the programme further enhances these gains. Additional benefits arise from visitors, scientific publications, and the societal value placed on fundamental research. The methodology used for this analysis has been applied to other scientific facilities, including synchrotron light sources and Earth-observation satellites.
The approach developed for the LHC and HiLumi LHC has also informed assessments of the proposed Future Circular Collider, which is similarly expected to deliver societal returns exceeding its costs. Each study builds on the last, refining the economic evaluation of Big Science projects. The findings underscore the long-term value of fundamental research infrastructure beyond immediate discoveries.